Soil takes decades. A farmer must decide this season.

The land is measured more than ever. What a change of practice will do is still uncertain.

“Regenerative” has no agreed definition in Australian statistics, and we found no national count of farms that practise it. So this page deals in specific practices and measurements: ground cover, soil testing, nitrogen, water and soil carbon.

Soil carbon is the sharpest case. The regulator's own method page says that eligible activities may not result in soil carbon increases [5]. A 2026 review found some reported gains were higher than the published science supports [4].

Measurement is moving all the same. The national accounts now estimate irrigation from a CSIRO satellite model in place of farm surveys [2]. The first credits under the 2021 soil carbon method, over 150,000 ACCUs, went to two Queensland grazing projects in June 2023 [10].

• $100 billiona year by 2030 is the growth goal the national farm body set for Australian agriculture in 2018.National Farmers' Federation [1]
• 68.3%of Australia's water consumption in 2023-24 went to agriculture, forestry and fishing: 11,760 gigalitres.Australian Bureau of Statistics [2]
• 14.6%rise in that water use in a single year.Australian Bureau of Statistics [2]
• $20 to $30per hectare is the cost of physical soil carbon sampling, against a government target of $3.AgriFutures Australia [3]
• $120 / $30per sample: laboratory analysis against proximal sensing with a hybrid approach.AgriFutures Australia [8]
• 5 of 6standards were met by the soil carbon crediting method in its April 2026 review. It fell short on being conservative.Clean Energy Regulator [4]
• 24%fewer carbon projects were registered in the June quarter 2026 than a year earlier, a fall the regulator links to soil carbon.Clean Energy Regulator [4]
• 0.4 millionACCUs issued to agriculture projects in the June quarter 2026, a record for a quarter.Clean Energy Regulator [4]
• 3 tonnesof carbon per hectare per year is the cap proposed for credits from 25-year soil carbon projects.Clean Energy Regulator [4]
• 25 yearsis the crediting period for a soil carbon project, with soil re-sampled every one to five years.Clean Energy Regulator [5]
• 90 metresis the grid of the national soil carbon maps, each cell published with its range of uncertainty.TERN, Wadoux and others [6]
• 1889is how far back Australia's public daily climate record runs.Queensland Government [7]

Six questions a farm must answer before the soil does.

The public tools are serious: national soil maps made by machine learning [6], a national wheat forecast that gave paddock-level yield forecasts to just over 400 users across four years [9], and a satellite water estimate that now stands in for farm surveys [2]. That 400 is a fair measure of how early prediction on farms still is.

A regional map is not a paddock. For each question below: the gap in what is published, the test, the public data, and the pass mark.

1. Will this practice change raise soil carbon here, and by how much?

   The answer depends on the soil, the rainfall and the starting point, and the change is small against the noise in measuring it.

   The gap

   National soil-carbon maps give each cell a range [6], and the flat regional rate is the rule in use. Whether starting carbon, clay, rainfall and ground-cover history predict five-year change better is not settled.

   The test

   Predict measured five-year carbon change from starting carbon, clay content, rainfall and ground-cover history. Score it on held-out sites against one flat regional rate.

   Public data

   Soil and Landscape Grid of Australia, national soil information system, SILO climate records, TERN data portal.

   Pass mark

   Smaller error than the flat rate on unseen sites. If not, the model has failed.

2. How few soil cores are enough?

   Sampling is the largest running cost of proving a change. One Australian study found the $3 target within reach only on properties above 1,000 hectares with low variability [8].

   The gap

   Whether sample points chosen from the national maps and satellite cover reach the same confidence with fewer cores than random sampling.

   The test

   Place cores where the national soil maps and satellite ground cover are least certain. Re-sample properties that already have dense measurements, and count the cores needed for a fixed confidence.

   Public data

   Soil and Landscape Grid of Australia, Digital Earth Australia imagery, national soil information system. Dense property-level sampling is held by landholders and project developers, not published.

   Pass mark

   Fewer cores at the same confidence. If the saving cannot be told apart from zero, we say so.

3. Will less nitrogen cost yield this year?

   Fertiliser is one of the largest input bills, and its price moves sharply. Whether a lower rate, or a biological product in its place, pays depends on soil water and the season.

   The gap

   Public nitrogen trials exist. We found no published ranking of paddocks by expected return to a unit of nitrogen.

   The test

   Model the yield response to a unit of nitrogen from pre-sowing soil water, soil nitrogen and seasonal rainfall, across public trial records. Rank paddocks by expected return.

   Public data

   GRDC National Variety Trials and Online Farm Trials, SILO climate records, Soil and Landscape Grid of Australia.

   Pass mark

   The ranking beats chance on held-out trials. For a biological product the first test is simpler: any effect in replicated strips.

4. How much feed will there be in three months?

   Stocking decisions are made months ahead of the grass. Seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill, and it varies by region and time of year.

   The gap

   Whether current satellite biomass and soil water beat the long-run average at a three-month lead, and where they do not.

   The test

   Forecast pasture from current satellite biomass, soil water and the seasonal outlook. Compare it with the long-run average at a three-month lead, in named regions and seasons.

   Public data

   SILO climate records, Digital Earth Australia ground cover, Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks.

   Pass mark

   Skill over the long-run average, region by region. It will fail in some, and naming those is part of the result.

5. How much water will the district need next month?

   Agricultural water use moved by 14.6% in one year [2].

   The gap

   Last year's same-month figure is the rule in use. We found no published product that forecasts next month's district demand against it.

   The test

   Forecast next month's district irrigation demand from satellite evapotranspiration, forecast rainfall and crop area. Score it on held-back months against the same month last year.

   Public data

   ABS Water Account, SILO climate records, Digital Earth Australia imagery.

   Pass mark

   Smaller error than same-month-last-year on held-back months.

6. What is this farm's emissions intensity, honestly measured?

   A farm cannot manage what its numbers only approximate. Farm calculators lean on regional default factors.

   The gap

   Whether a short list of farm inputs gets close enough to show the year-to-year change a farm wants to detect. Complete farm records stay with the farm.

   The test

   Estimate emissions intensity from herd numbers, turn-off weights, fertiliser tonnes and fuel. Compare the error with the full calculator, and with the year-to-year change a farm wants to detect.

   Public data

   National Greenhouse Gas Inventory methods and factors, ABARES farm survey data, and public greenhouse accounting framework calculators.

   Pass mark

   The error sits inside that year-to-year change. If it swamps the change, the estimate is decoration, and we say so.

We start with the published number. We return a range.

Our own method takes the number already in use and returns a range for this project, this paddock, this farm. It is scored on records the model has never seen. If it does not beat the number in use, we say so.

For farming, the method covers soil-carbon change, how few cores are enough, nitrogen against yield, three-month feed, next month's water and emissions intensity. Each is a range for a paddock and a season, set against the regional rate.

1. Lock the ruleThe number in use today: a statewide average, a map cell, last year's rate, a no-change forecast.
2. Build the modelOn Australian records, for the decision that has to be made now.
3. Give a rangeA range you can check. Not a single figure.
4. Score itOn records it has never seen, against the rule. Misses are named.
5. Keep scoringAs each quarter, season or five-minute interval arrives.

What stays private

The models, the features, the scoring, and the way a miss shapes the next range. None of it is published. Client data stays with the client. This site shows the questions and the tests, not the working.

Every figure on this page comes from one of these publications. Official statistics are revised, so check the source before relying on a number.

1. National Farmers' Federation. 2030 Roadmap. read 10 November 2026. https://nff.org.au/policies/roadmap/
2. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Water Account, Australia, 2023-24. 11 December 2025. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/environment/environmental-management/water-account-australia/latest-release
3. AgriFutures Australia. Harnessing remote sensing and AI to reach holy grail of soil carbon measurement. 19 September 2023. https://agrifutures.com.au/news/harnessing-remote-sensing-and-ai-to-reach-holy-grail-of-soil-carbon-measurement/
4. Clean Energy Regulator. Quarterly Carbon Market Report, June Quarter 2026. 9 September 2026. https://cer.gov.au/document/quarterly-carbon-market-report-june-quarter-2026
5. Clean Energy Regulator. Estimating soil organic carbon sequestration using measurement and models method. 13 January 2026. https://cer.gov.au/schemes/australian-carbon-credit-unit-scheme/accu-scheme-methods/estimating-soil-organic-carbon-sequestration-using-measurement-and-models-method
6. TERN, Wadoux and others. Soil and Landscape Grid national soil organic carbon maps, Release 2. 2024. https://portal.tern.org.au/metadata/TERN/405bdb14-e7d2-4570-93c0-35f75d635f14
7. Queensland Government. SILO: Australian climate data from 1889 to the present. read 10 November 2026. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
8. AgriFutures Australia. Study shows conditions required for cheaper soil carbon testing. 21 September 2023. https://agrifutures.com.au/news/study-shows-conditions-required-for-cheaper-soil-carbon-testing/
9. CSIRO Digiscape. Forecasting Australia's national grain crop yield (Graincast). read 10 November 2026. https://research.csiro.au/digiscape/digiscapes-projects/forecasting-australias-national-grain-crop-yield
10. Clean Energy Regulator. First ACCUs issued under 2021 soil carbon method. 23 June 2023. https://cer.gov.au/first-accus-issued-under-2021-soil-carbon-method